Sylvanus Weke: Will 2015 be a year of free and fair elections in Africa? [OPINION]

Since the advent of multi party democracy in Africa, electoral contests have become a do or die affair in majority of African countries. Elections in Africa are a high risk affair and in the recent times, they have been a trigger of conflicts. Kenya and Ivory Coast are good examples of how mismanaged elections can plunge a country into a conflict.  Half a century after gaining independence, majority of African states have not got it right in terms of conducting and managing free and fair elections. The year 2015 will see a host of African countries go through elections. Presidential elections and/or legislative elections will be held in Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Togo, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Central Africa Republic, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, Chad, and Egypt and may be South Sudan depending on the peace deal to be signed. Most of these countries have struggled to institute the practice of democracy in recent times. 2015 therefore presents a great opportunity for them to show the world that they have matured democratically.

Will there be adequate security for the voters and opposition candidates? Will the incumbents accept to step down after being defeated in the elections? Will the elections free and fair?

Adequate Security during and after elections

Security remains one of the biggest challenges for most Africa states especially during the conduct of elections and after. Nigeria has just postponed its elections citing security concerns posed by the Boko Haram group in the North East of Nigeria. The country’s top security chiefs were unable to assure the electoral body of adequate security during the voting exercise.

[i] Though security is a genuine concern in Nigeria especially in the North East, the opposition party has taken the decision with a lot of skepticism. Critics to the decision believe the government forced the Nigerian Independent National Elections Commission to give them time to cover ground they had lost to the opposition.

[ii] If the security will not have improved by March 28th 2015 when the elections are supposed to be held, then the opposition’s fears will be confirmed. The question remains whether the people of North East Nigeria will feel safe enough to come out and vote despite the visible Boko Haram threat. In Burundi, the threats of violence against the opposition parties challenging the ruling party are high.

[iii]Security is not guaranteed for the opposition politicians who are seen as a threat to the party in power.  Groups opposed to the current president are faced with arrests and intimidation in their course of campaigns.

[iv] Countries which are authoritarian in nature like Sudan, Ethiopia and Chad do not guarantee security for opposition candidates. The opposition is seen as enemies of the state and they are supposed to be kept in check throughout. Elections in these countries only serve as a formality as the regimes in power do not support competition. Central Africa Republic and South Sudan have endured a violent conflict in the last year. There is hope that they will be able to hold elections this year. This is depended on water-tight peace agreements that demand cessation of violence for peaceful elections to be held. Without guarantee for security, a section of the citizens will be disenfranchised as they will not be able to cast their votes. Absence of security also creates an avenue for intimidation and threats against opponents and voters.

Will the African strongmen accept defeat?

Prior to 2015, Burkina Faso had shown the courage by chasing away their long serving leader Blaise Compaore who had wanted to change the constitution to remain in power. Such a move energized other countries under the iron fist rule of strong men to try and oust their leaders either through popular revolt or the ballot.

Previous elections have shown how it is difficult to unseat a sitting president through the ballot. This is because all the instruments of power and coercion are applied by the incumbents when faced with a threat of losing power. Blatant vote rigging, gerrymandering of constituency boundaries to favour the ruling party, biased electoral bodies are some of the tactics used. Current African sitting presidents facing elections include; Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria, Faure Gnassingbe of Togo, Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi, Omar Al Bashir of Sudan and Alassane Ouattara of Ivory Coast.

In Togo and Burundi opposition groups have unsuccessfully tried to protest the decision of incumbents to run for a third term. In both countries Presidents Faure Gnassingbe and Pierre Nkuruzinza are expected to win their third terms easily.

[v] In case the incumbents lose elections in Nigeria, Sudan, Ivory Coast, Burundi, Togo, will they hand over power to their opponents? It has happened before in Malawi recently where the sitting President Joyce Banda lost elections to an opposition candidate but conceded defeat despite pressure from party loyalists to reject results.

Many of the current presidents facing elections are already using unorthodox means of trying to remain in power like changing the constitution to remove term limits. In the concluded African Union summit for 2015, the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon urged African leaders to avoid clinging to power and accept defeat when they lose elections.

[vi] Voluntarily stepping down as stipulated by the constitution and accepting defeat at the ballot remains a big challenge to democracy in Africa. The African Union has a big role to play in encouraging its members to avoid this bad behavior.

Conducting free and fair elections

Conducting free and fair elections is a process that is built over a period of time. Creating an independent and impartial electoral commission is the fundamental ingredient for conducting a free and fair election. Having such a body promotes voters confidence in the process. The bodies should strive to be transparent as much as possible. The composition of these bodies should be a representative of all the parties as opposed to regime friendly members.

[vii] Elections being a contest, disputes over the results should always be anticipated. In an election contest which has been characterized by violence, voter intimidation, vote rigging, use of state resources, the results rarely reflect a true position of the voters. Absence of proper dispute resolution mechanisms gives room for the use of other means especially violence. These mechanisms will only work if their decisions are binding and acceptable by both parties.

The role of the independent constitutional courts in arbitrating these matters should be promoted and strengthened. Existence of an independent judiciary remains a challenge especially in authoritarian regimes where judges and magistrates are cronies of the party in power and therefore getting justice against the state remains a tall order. Opening up space for dialogue between opposition and the government in the run up to the elections should be encouraged to diffuse any building up tensions that come with elections. Politics of inclusion should be promoted so that even if a group loses elections they will still be part of the state and not marginalized to the periphery.

The 2015 elections will be a major turning point for many countries. Already Zambia has shown why it remains one of the few African countries where transition is a smooth affair. Their recently concluded elections have been lauded as being free and fair by the observers.

[viii] A big challenge for all the countries holding elections in 2015 will be making sure that the elections are free, fair and credible.

According to Brookings Institution, these governments must; 
(1) provide security for all and make sure nobody is intimidated, threatened;
(2) make sure there is an open media accessible to all;
(3) minimization of political corruption like vote rigging
(4) establish independent electoral commissions to ensure the elections are free, fair and credible.

[ix] I’m hopeful that countries having elections in 2015 will get it right and conduct credible elections and have peaceful transitions like Zambia has done.

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